Super Bowl, one of the worst times of the year at the box office, could potentially see the best overall result post Covid for a No. 1 movie and the overall marketplace with Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Dog Man hanging in for a high teens to possible $20M second weekend.
At that level, that would be the best No. 1 take for a movie playing over Super Bowl since 2021; the previous high belonging to the opening of Death on the Nile with $12.8M in 2022.
On the high end, that’s a -44% ease which would be higher than the previous Dav Pilkey big screen take, 2017’s Captain Underpants, which declined -49% in weekend 2 with a $12.1M take.
The best overall box office weekend for Super Bowl post pandemic was also 2022 with $53.8M for all titles. Three-day ticket sales for all movies during Super Bowl have dropped an average of -28% from the previous weekend post Covid. If that calculation holds up, look for all titles to do just north of $60M.
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Dog Man led all titles on Tuesday with $1.7M and a five-day take of $38.6M, followed by New Line’s Companion which chalked up $1.2M for a running five-day of $11.2M.
Also entering the marketplace are two thrifty priced genre movies, both of which have ‘love’ as a theme for the upcoming Valentine’s Day holiday: Spyglass/Sony’s $18M priced horror movie Heart Eyes with an eye at $7M-$8M (maybe $10M per rivals) at 3,000 theaters, and Universal and 87North’s $18M gritty action title Love Hurts starring Everything Everywhere All at Once Oscar winner Ke Huy Quan in his first solo headlining movie; that pic’s forecast at $6M-$8M at 3,200 locations.
The R-rated Heart Eyes starring Jordana Brewster, Olivia Holt, and Devon Sawa is strongest with those under 35 as well as Latino and Hispanic audiences. The horror move follows those in peril of the “Heart Eyes Killer” who has wreaked havoc on Valentine’s Day by stalking and murdering romantic couples. The Josh Ruben directed movie is currently 89% fresh with 47 critics on Rotten Tomatoes. Previews are at 2PM Thursday at 2,500 theaters, with Heart Eyes also making heart eyes for PLF screens.
R-rated Love Hurts looks to attract diverse audiences, and overindex on the West coast. Awareness is highest with men over and under 35. Both studios see Heart Eyes and Love Hurts as date night movies. Love Hurts will have PLF screens including exhibitor branded and Dolby screens. Previews begin Thursday at 2PM.
Directed by Jonathan Eusebio, Love Hurts, which also stars Oscar winner Ariana DeBose, follows a realtor (Quan) who is pulled back into the life he left behind after his former partner-in-crime resurfaces with an ominous message. With his crime-lord brother also on his trail, he must confront his past and the history he never fully buried.
Studios haven’t shied from booking movies over Super Bowl weekend, however, we still haven’t seen the likes of 2015 when Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper held in its sixth frame with $30.7M over the Big Game holiday. The notion is that people still go to the movies on Friday and Saturday.